2024 Economic Outlook – There’s Uncertainty, but Also General Optimism About the Year Ahead
Brooke Thomson says the Business Confidence Index issued each month by Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM), does a fairly effective job of conveying what business owners are thinking.
When the index is consistently below 50, it indicates general pessimism about the economy in general. Conversly, when it’s above 50 and trending north of that mark, it conveys overall optimism and, as the name on the index indicates, confidence about what is to come.
And … when the index is right around 50 and hovering there, as it has been for the past several months, well, that generallly communicates the sentiment that business owners aren’t exactly sure what to think, and are, by and large, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic, said Thomson, who took the reins as CEO of AIM on Jan. 1.
“What this tells me is that there’s a moderating that’s happening,” she told BusinessWest. “The good thing that you can draw from the index is that when you see it around 50 for several months in a row, there’s some consistency, which is critical for business to be successful; uncertainty is the worst thing that you can see in business. But it also indicates to me that businesses aren’t quite sure if we’re headed to a good place or a bad place. Businesses need to have a sense of being able to forecast wh at’s coming in order to adjust.”
This general state of not knowing what to think extends to economists and economic-development leaders as well, meaning that uncertainty is perhaps the prevailing sentiment heading into a year that promises to be an intriguing one in many ways and on many levels, including a presidential race that will likely consume the nation and its business community.